A winter provisioning exercise at Kaltgrat.
a game of six weeks, twelve convoys, and one unknown number
The garrison at Kaltgrat must be provisioned before the snow closes everything. You have twelve convoys and six weeks; every week, two convoys go up. Each convoy that arrives banks one depot of grain. Your only decision, week after week, is the split: how many by each route.
There are two ways up. The Old Road is long and patrolled: a convoy on it arrives with a chance that is known before you start. The High Pass is shorter and unmapped: it gets convoys through with some fixed chance p that nobody knows — the only way to learn it is to risk convoys on it. The radio reports each Pass convoy’s fate before you plan the next week.
Choose your winter. The Pass is equally unknown in all four; only the Old Road differs.
arrives with unknown chance p
Two convoys leave every week — choose how to split them before dispatching.